So making long-term predictions is rather a black art.
In terms of long-term predictions, Siri is actually an easy bet.
Paradoxically, one can make long-term predictions on the basis of the prevalence of forecasting errors.
At the same time, officials here were cautious about making long-term predictions.
And for the first time, the central bank issued detailed long-term predictions.
Economics and climate change are both complex subjects that contain significant areas of uncertainty – especially when it comes to making long-term predictions.
Gloomy long-term predictions about general implications of climate-change across the entire economy will continue to make the bulk of executives really worried but largely paralysed.
But although the production function, like Newtonian mechanics, may be broadly right, it is nowhere near right enough to make meaningful long-term predictions.
And there is no escape: barring huge natural or man-made disasters, demographic changes are much more certain than other long-term predictions (for example, of climate change).
Mr Alexander's paper is clear: Scotland will inherit debt worth exactly 74% of GDP, no less.The real fuel for Mr Salmond's optimism comes from three long-term predictions.
Mr. Maskin's comparison of economics with nonlinear sciences like seismology and meteorology, which do not yield long-term predictions, is to no avail.
