As evident from Table 3, in the case of long term stockpiling wastage of earlier stockpiles occurs given the short shelf-life of the vaccines, with the result being generally less cost-beneficial, unless costs are reduced to seasonal vaccine levels or the perception of severity is high.
Wild initially estimated that they would have to wait one month for rescue, and refused to allow long-term stockpiling of seal and penguin meat because this, in his view, was defeatist.
Even under the lower cost of USD$6.6, long term stockpiling strategies were cost-beneficial only with high vaccine effectiveness of >60% or high attack rates of >40%.
Development of cheaper and more effective vaccines is therefore necessary for long-term stockpiling to be feasible.
The alternative strategy, which avoids the costs and problems associated with long-term stockpiling, is to await the appearance of a candidate pandemic strain before accumulating a vaccine stock, with a view to immediate vaccination once the vaccine stock becomes available.
At case-fatality rates of 0.1% [similar to inter-pandemic epidemics [20] [22]], most of the cost-benefit decisions favor treatment-only over long-term stockpiling (Figure 2).
What supplies, equipment, etc should be available, what to do in the long run, what people should be trained at in case of... Prepare short term stockpile of clean water, water purifiers, sealed stored food, medical supplies, lights, tools, communications, batteries.
Because AV drugs have a limited shelf-life, long-term maintenance of stockpiles may constitute a significant cost.
Our study has shown that long-term vaccine stockpiling is expensive and may not be cost-effective at the population level for mild pandemics.
Think of your long term goals.
