Under appropriate assumptions, the ensemble mean becomes an empirical maximum-likelihood forecast.
Part II repeated the questions on likelihoods, activity, forecasting and impacts, but asked for scientists' views about the perceptions of local people.
The result is a likelihood-based forecasting model capable of quantifying the transnational terrorist threat one state poses to another, even before any attacks have occurred between the two states.
"Modelling indicates that there's every likelihood under the forecast weather conditions that these two fires, particularly up in the back end of the mountains will merge at some point... there is every likelihood that these two fires will join up," he said.
And after all, how accurate were the models that forecast the likelihood that Enron would collapse?
Small tremors emanating from Earth's tectonic faults may help scientists forecast the likelihood of a major earthquake, according to a study.
Democrats said that Mr. Lieberman had seemed to forecast the likelihood of a defeat in Judge Sauls's court but that the ticket would fight on.
What seismologists are increasingly able to do, however, is forecast the likelihood that a quake will occur in a certain area over a certain time.
He doesn't forecast the likelihood that calamitous weather events like Hurricane Sandy will cause far greater damage when the oceans have risen closer to the level of the cities, overwhelming roads, sewers, underground trains, and water systems.
While predicting the exact time and location of an earthquake is not possible, seismologists are increasingly able to forecast the likelihood that a quake might occur in a certain area within a certain time.
A novel approach is proposed to forecast the likelihood of climate-change across spatial landscape gradients.
