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Labor's David Feeney holds Batman by a 10.6% margin – but without a beneficial Liberal preference flow, that margin is effectively wiped out.
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The Greens' chances of winning other inner-city seats in Melbourne and Sydney were dealt a blow over the weekend after Labor struck a deal with the Liberal party to get Liberal preferences ahead of the Greens in key Labor-held seats.
"Without Liberal preferences, the Greens would need to outpoll Labor on first preferences to win".
"This dropped to 28-3428-34%iberal preferences in 2013, when the Liberal party favoured Labor".
Greens strategist admit that the only way Casey could win in Grayndler is with Liberal preferences.
Raue said: "When the Liberal party preferenced the Greens over Labor in 2010, the Greens received 74-81% of Liberal preferences.
Without Liberal preferences, the Greens will find it very hard to win the seats of Batman, Wills, Grayndler and Sydney.
In 2013, when the Liberal party preferenced Labor, the Greens only received 28-34% of Liberal preferences in the three inner-Melbourne seats where they came second.
Liberal preferences would be a big leg-up for inner-city Greens campaigns, but any hint of a deal with the Liberal party would be damaging.
Electoral analyst and Guardian Australia election blogger, Ben Raue, said: "Liberal preferences are crucial to the Greens winning in Grayndler and Sydney, but they're not enough.
While Greens how-to-votes will have a minimal impact on the election, Liberal preferences could have a huge impact in Labor/Green inner-city marginal seats.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
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