But whether we can quantify those effects after the fact, much less predict them beforehand, is a much more challenging question.
As always, there was a slight falling-off from picture to picture, until we could more or less predict that the next one was going to break even or lose money - so we never made the next one.
My colleague, Richard Meese, and I came back with the then-radical, but now-conventional, finding that no structural model can reliably explain major-currency exchange-rate movements after the fact, much less predict them.We continued our efforts regardless.
(Guillermo Calvo and Carmen Reinhart call this phenomenon "fear of floating").Movements in those few exchange rates that do float (for instance, the dollar-yen and the euro-dollar) are frustratingly difficult to explain, much less predict; policymakers must be conscious of this fact.
The entrepreneurial revolution has lowered the threshold to innovative market entrants to where we can't envision the economic future, much less predict it.
8 Similar approaches are likely required to understand the complex biology in MPS platforms, much less predict in vivo responses from them.
