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At Durban, those arguing for a legally binding outcome won.
The poorest nations wanted a legally binding outcome by the end of next year.
South Africa therefore is committed to continuing its engagement in the UNFCCC processes in order to be able to achieve in Mexico in 2010 the legally binding outcome that we had hoped for in Copenhagen".
Without parallel court proceedings to enshrine any agreement in an order of the court, there is no legally binding outcome from mediation at all.
Some developing countries, certainly the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), but also South Africa and Brazil, supported a double protocol approach with a legally binding outcome in the AWG-LCA.
But the big four emerging economies (China, India, Brazil and South Africa -- the so-called BASIC group) rejected not merely the form of a new treaty but even the idea, deleting the ultimate goal of a "legally binding outcome" from the Copenhagen Accord's conclusions.
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A "Pre-COP" Ministerial meeting held in parallel in Copenhagen showed a range of conflicting messages from countries; with Saudi Arabia defending the Kyoto Protocol, some developing countries backing a new single negotiating process but a strong push from Brazil and others to maintain a legally binding Copenhagen outcome.
The most important development was the commitment to reaching "an agreed outcome with legally binding consequences" by 2015, to go into effect in 2020.
Anote Tong, the Prime Minister of Kiribati, made an eloquent plea for a legally binding global agreement as the outcome from the upcoming UN conference in Mexico, reminding the audience that already, when high tides hit his island nation at the full moon, communities that have been safe for hundreds of years are now being flooded.
A last-ditch compromise among the European Union, India and China over the wording of how a new agreement should be described – the words "legally binding" were replaced by "an agreed outcome with legal force" – enabled the talks to end in consensus.
The legal form The form of words settled on – "an agreed outcome with legal force" – means a legally binding commitment, say European Union EU's lawyers, but it is vague enough for countries to dispute.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com