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Table 3 shows lead time estimates from the literature for screen detected prostate cancer.
Published lead time estimates in breast cancer screening vary from 1 to 7 years and the percentages of overdiagnosis vary from 0 to 75%.
Lead time estimates were calculated by averaging the earliest time point of detection for CEA test-positive cases at the 5 and 2.5 ng ml−1 thresholds.
Model-based lead time estimates in the literature vary from 2 to 7 years for screen-detected breast cancer (Duffy et al, 1995; Weedon Fekjær et al, 2008) and from 3 to 12 years for screen-detected prostate cancer (Draisma et al, 2003, 2009).
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Based on the lead time estimate, the tuning parameters are updated in real time to improve the efficiency of the system.
The corrected-for-lead-time cases should be compared with the predicted number in the absence of screening, and the percentage excess after correction for lead time is an indicator of overdiagnosis, given the lead time estimate.
With the upper limit (4.8 years) of 95% CI of the lead time estimate for 50 to 74-year-old women, the estimate of overdiagnosis was 102.8, including the in situ carcinomas; that is, an excess of 3%.
In studies based on statistical modeling to adjust for lead-time, estimates of overdiagnosis are consistently below 5% [ 42, 43].
Lead-time estimates in men diagnosed aged 55 59 years were 14.1, 9.3 and 5.0 years for men with Gleason scores <7, 7 and >7, respectively, assuming biennial screening with 100% attendance.
15 After adjustment for lead time, with estimates varying from 1.6 to 3.0 years, the increases in 2000 were 54% and 21%, respectively.
Despite a production-significant lead time, the estimated four-month product supply lasted Burger king less than three months.
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