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The lagged average of the last two runs of models within the ICON consensus is called the IVCN consensus.
A lagged average of the last two runs of the members within the TCON plus the ECMWF model is known as the TVCN consensus.
To test the robustness of the model we compared the model fit, summary estimates and the exposure response functions of the final models with models that used longer lagged averages (2-day mean of lag 0, 1 combined with 3 day mean of lag 2 5 or lag 0 combined with the mean of lag 1 to 25).
When we compared our final models with models that used longer lagged averages (2-day mean of lag 0, 1 combined with 3 day mean of lag 2 5 or lag 0 combined with the mean of lag 1 to 25) there was no improvement of the model fit.
In addition to distributed lag models, we fitted moving average models that implicitly assume equal weighting of the lag effects, in contrast with the distributed lag model that allows the weighting to differ among the lags.
We also fit unconstrained distributed lag and 4-day moving average models to evaluate the robustness of our results to our choice of model.
Results from unconstrained distributed lag models and 4-day moving average models were similar [see Supplemental Material, Table S2 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1104349)].
aWTD, water table depth; the probability of SLEV transmission incidence is represented as a function of single time lags of weekly averaged modeled WTD.
In the wage regressions above, I account for this possibility by estimating models that include lagged metro-average wages.
We introduced the concentration of air pollutants on day 0, one day ago, seven days ago (Lag0-Lag7) or lag moving average (Avg0-Avg7) inthethe model one by one to calculate the relative risk and CI by the regression coefficient β of air pollutants to make it possible to quantify the influence of air pollutants on premature birth.
Based on associations with individual lags, we also assessed associations with lagged moving averages.
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