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Therefore, they did not expose themselves to the outcome base-rate information, P(O|¬A), which is essential to give an accurate judgment of control.
This is consistent with previous reports conducted in similar conditions (e.g., Blanco et al., 2011; Matute, 1996), in which the higher the P(A) was, the more positive the judgment of control (i.e., stronger generative illusion).
According to the influential Rescorla-Wagner model (Rescorla & Wagner, 1972), an individual's judgment of control would be given by the strength of the association between the representation of the action and the representation of the outcome, VA.
After a series of 50 trials, the participants were asked to rate how much control they exerted over the light (i.e., a judgment of control: " To what extent did you control the switching on of the light bulb?") by clicking on a scale ranging from −100 to +100.
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Table 1 reports the descriptive statistics for the judgments of control obtained in each group.
We were mainly interested in the effect of the P(A) on judgments of control, and how this effect could be modulated by Goal and P O).
As we predicted in this condition, higher P(A) led to more negative judgments of control (i.e., stronger preventive illusion).
Not surprisingly, the ordinal pattern of results at the end of the simulation is almost identical to the one we obtained with the judgments of control at the end of our experiment (see Figure 3).
This renders the effects of P(A) on the judgments of control that we reported in the previous section easier to interpret: They could not be attributable to the groups differing in their levels of P(A).
From this perspective, people's judgments of control are influenced by subjective needs related with the maintenance and enhancement of the self-esteem (e.g., Heider, 1958; Kelley, 1973; Weiner, 1979).
This is not an uncommon finding in experiments where judgments of control are collected in null contingency settings: In fact, this variability allowed us to detect the effect of P(A) on judgments in one-group designs (e.g., Blanco et al., 2011).
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