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She combined the long-term hurricane record with new data on property exposure -- building-replacement costs by ZIP code, engineering reports, local building codes, etc. -- and wound up with a crude but powerful tool, both for judging the probability of a catastrophe striking any one area and for predicting the losses it might inflict.
"Similarity" is another cognitive heuristic and reflects "a cognitive shortcut used for judging the probability of an event by its similarity to events with comparable features" [ 29], p.248.
(Participant 4)" "Availability of risk" is a cognitive heuristic that refers to "a cognitive shortcut used for judging the probability of an event by the ease with which examples of the event come to mind" [ 29], p.248.
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Dr. Kenneth I. Berns, president of the Mount Sinai Medical Center in New York City, said he judged the probability that Iraq possessed weaponized smallpox as "reasonably high" and that Saddam Hussein would use such germs in a war against the United States as "quite high".
Representativeness: where people judge the probability of an event by how much it represents available data.
To determine how well triage physicians judge the probability of death or severe complications that require treatment only available in an ICU to maintain life for patients with acute congestive heart failure (CHF).
The probability output of the SVM is then used to judge the fiducial probability of the sample in the SVM model in the first stage.
Both coefficients are negative and thus indicate that there is a larger difference between the two groups after marriage than before the event, judging by the probability of sending remittances.
Availability heuristics employ readily accessible information to judge the frequency, probability, and causality of traits and events.
For this purpose, we take observations and compute predictions at n= 0, 0.4,…0.4,…, 9. We use the averages and standard deviations for the entire (original) data and compute RMSE (see "Root mean square error" section) for judging the agreement between the predicted probability (p pred ) and observed probability (p obs ) for s and d.
Firstly, the gray area of the SVM model is judged by the probability output and the corresponding samples are processed.
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