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After the polls closed, Mr. Simon told reporters that his rise in support was spurred by his own issue positions.
Personal issues and scandal are often easier for the public to digest than clashes over issue positions or ideology.
"People are not electing a set of issue positions," Mr. Shrum said, "they are electing a person".
"The truth is that there is very little difference between Governor Pawlenty and Congresswoman Bachmann on their issue positions.
He also enjoys the benefits of being the incumbent vice president, and having issue positions that, polls show, are generally more popular than Mr. Bush's.
"I think if it got to be about specific issue positions, you're playing on Gore's turf," one adviser to the Bush campaign said of the upcoming election.
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Regression analysis of the Washington Post poll suggests that Republicans are weighing these two factors — electability and issue positioning — about equally.
By contrast, Mr. Perry held a smaller, 6-point lead over Mr. Romney on the question of his issue positioning.
[Project Vote Smart Issue Position, 1/1/11] So, I will just tell my friends in Tennessee, make sure to give a big THANK YOU to Diane, Marsha, John, Chuck, and Phil.
They take advantage of various party-in-office erosions, they adjust to changing demographics, and they play a good game in candidate choice and issue positioning.
But it is also a time when a campaign makes important strategic decisions, in terms of its tone and tenor, its allocation of resources, and its issue positioning — decisions that it may be stuck with, for better or for worse.
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