Our intuitive estimates of probabilities are normally quite poor, especially in situations that involve a relatively large degree of mathematical complexity and in which we have relatively little hands-on experience.
Of the 70,000 prostate removals done this year, only 6,000 or so used the new robot technology, but that is up threefold in a year, Intuitive estimates.
Typical, seemingly intuitive estimates fall between a few feet and a few hundred feet, and they are nowhere near the correct answer a paper folded 50 times would reach as high as the distance from the Earth to the Sun.
Overall median calculated WFN and WFP based on intuitive estimates without regret were 71 57-811.7and 1.7 (0.6-5.8 0.6-5.8
Overall median calculated WFN and WFP based on intuitive estimates adjusted for regret were 252 (148-336) and 5 (1.83-17.29 1.83-17.29).
In parallel, to have an objective standard of comparison, we substituted literature probabilities for physicians' intuitive estimates to calculate the weights of false positives and false negatives.
This method has the advantage of using the same risk for each case scenario rather than using the many intuitive estimates provided by clinicians.
The omission vs. commission harm ratios based on intuitive weights, weights calculated with literature data, weights calculated with intuitive estimates of determinants adjusted without and with regret were 3.0 (1.4-5.0 1.4-5.01626), 33 (11-98) and 48 (11-133) respectively.
Thresholds based on pure regret and hybrid model (clinicians' intuitive estimates and regret) were 25 (16.7-41.7), and 2 0.75-7.5) respectively but utility-based thresholds for clinicians' estimates and literature data were 2.9 (1-8.3) and 5.9 (3.7-7.7 3.7-7.7tively.
