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Risk was estimated based on the predicted premises-specific abundance of Culicoides spp., a vector for AHSV, and on the frequency of equine introductions from outside regions.
A contiguous outbreak was the result of multiple introductions from outside the hospital.
These 3 infections might have resulted from 1, 2, or 3 independent virus introductions from outside KFMC.
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Deterministic models do not need HZ infectiousness to maintain VZV transmission, but IBM do need HZ infectiousness (or multiple re-introductions from outside our populations, but that is beyond the scope of this paper) to reach endemic equilibrium (we realize that our model might be the only model so far to endemically model a viral infection by means of a IBM).
However, elimination from larger areas may require repeated biannual treatments and prevention of re-introduction from outside to treated areas.
Such exogenous infection may represent introduction from outside the community, or a first approximation to infection from older children or adults within the same community.
However, the microanatomic distribution of immunohistological signals and the results from the PCR analysis strongly suggest local production rather than introduction from outside the bursa.
Regardless of whether cases were caused by within-hospital transmission or by introduction from outside, a markedly increased number of cases requires attention and control measures to prevent further spread.
The assumption of no additional introductions from the outside into the household is particularly convenient, as it enabled us to obtain precise transmissibility estimates even with a study size of less than 50 households [23].
Anderson [ 3] considered Yerba Buena Island to be the most likely of those he studied to have had its salamander population influenced by introductions from the outside and cited the decades of house building and extensive landscaping as producing the conditions for the introduction of Batrachoseps, possibly from multiple sources.
Introductions of seeds from outside the fragment may keep small tree populations viable and/or change the species composition in the fragment.
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