Exact(3)
Recent biocontrol studies focus on the roles of environmental stochasticity and Allee effects in determining introduction persistence but few studies consider the role of dispersal.
We use a spatially explicit simulation model that incorporates dispersal and spatio-temporally random population growth to show that elevated emigration rates can exacerbate the negative influences of environmental stochasticity and Allee effects on introduction persistence.
Our study highlights the potential for integrating HPAI H5N1 risk modeling with wild waterfowl migration ecology data to map and track (and potentially forecast) hot-spots, introduction, persistence, and spread of HPAI H5N1 along the Asian flyways.
Similar(57)
Our findings suggest that passerine migratory birds may play a role in the introduction or persistence of S. bongori 48 z35 in southern Italy.
Although both factors have contributed to the delayed establishment of WNV in British Columbia, they should be clearly separated because virus introduction and persistence are unique events (25 ).
For example, why is the plague bacterium endemic west of the 100th meridian in the United States, but not in eastern states despite several known introductions (7 )? Persistence of Y. pestis in soil has been suggested as a possible mechanism of interepizootic persistence, epizootic spread, and as a factor defining plague foci (2, 3, 5, 7, 8 ).
As the initial spatial radius of introduction increases, population persistence is more likely with less genetic variance for selection to act on.
Furthermore, other risk factors identified possible vehicles for introduction, spreading and/or persistence within farms, such as import of straw from abroad, access to the goat stable of cats, dogs and use of artificial insemination, and covering airspaces of the stable.
The disparity is likely to stem from the difficulty to disentangle new introductions from local persistence and from the very high variability in disease surveillance in poultry and wild birds.
One should stress that the environmental distance to Henan is thought to be an indicator of persistence upon introduction, i.e., not the risk of introduction itself.
Whilst fadeout may occur in smaller more geographically isolated herds with minimal introduction of infectious stock, persistence may be associated with large herds in pig-dense regions with continuous introduction of infectious stock.
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