Exact(6)
Mr. Trump actually fared better in the final live interview polls than the final online polls.
The live interview polls also came closer to the mark in the national popular vote.
Does that mean the live interview polls are right this time?
An average of the live interview polls over the last two weeks has him up by 7.3pt.
Live interview polls and automated polls produce different party identification distributions (ones that are also different from in-person Election Day exit polls).
The fascinating thing is that recent analyses by Nate Silver and The New Republic's Nate Cohn show that IVR polls are producing more Republican-leaning results than live interview polls, despite weighting age to a more accurate representation of the likely electorate.
Similar(54)
By this time in 2011, opinion researchers had conducted just 26 online surveys and more than 100 live-interview polls.
Although there are a handful of live-interview polls that still omit cellphones, most of the no-cellphone polls used automated dialers, while some were conducted online.
This may not be the time to get into a lengthy discussion about the merits of automated polls versus live-interview polls, but something to keep in mind is that automated polls usually do not call cellphones.
(Interestingly, at least in Indiana, the robo-polls show Hillary doing slightly better among African Americans than the live-interview polls. I wonder if they're picking up on a queasiness black voters are less comfortable sharing with human interviewers).
Public, live-interview polls of the state have been exceedingly rare, and, given the state's history of polling miscues, it's hard to tell whether the conditions of the race have genuinely changed, or the forecasts are just picking up on noise in the polling data.
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