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This paper shows that properly designed interest rate rules can be consistent with maintaining exchange rate stability.
This paper explores Knightian model uncertainty as a possible explanation of the considerable difference between estimated interest rate rules and optimal feedback descriptions of monetary policy.
It sheds light on the relation between interest rate rules, exchange rate regimes, and determinacy of the rational expectation equilibrium in a modern macroeconomic framework.
This paper provides a first attempt to quantify and at the same time utilize estimated measures of uncertainty for the design of robust interest rate rules.
Consideration of interest rate rules has also, as I will discuss, come to have a prominent role in FOMC discussions, with the Taylor rule being one benchmark that we regularly consult.
A landmark result in the optimal monetary policy design literature is that fundamental-based interest rate rules invariably lead to rational expectations equilibria (REE) that are not stable under adaptive learning.
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It derives analytically an optimal interest rate rule under commitment and studies the dependence of its coefficients on the parameters of the structural model of each economy, the central bank's preferences for inflation and output stabilization as shown in its loss function, and the relative size of each country.
For example, Taylor (1993) recommends the use of a simple interest rate rule that is a function of inflation and the output gap.
The model can be used to analyze the consequences of a wide range of macroeconomic shocks, to identify the structural determinants of the coefficients of a Taylor type interest rate rule, and to explain the origin and size of inflation bias.
This policy instrument has so far been overlooked by a large body of the literature on the optimal design of interest-rate rules.
This paper examines the performance of optimised interest-rate rules when there is uncertainty about a key determinant of the monetary transmission mechanism, namely the degree of persistence characterising the inflation process.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
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