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Farms within the same integrator group as an infected farm may face as much as a fivefold increase in exposure risk compared to farms affiliated with a different group," said Jessica Leibler, a doctoral candidate in the Bloomberg School's Sommer Scholars program.
These probabilities were calculated for farms within (δ = 1) and outside (δ = 0) the integrator group.
The model estimated the risk of exposure for farms within the same integrator group as the index farm and for farms outside the same integrator group (that is, contracted to other integrators) but within Sussex County.
Farms within the same integrator group as the index farm hiring day laborers had at a greater than 3-fold increase in risk compared to farms in the integrator group that did not hire day laborers.
Sources of farm contact associated with the integrator group contributed from 72 85% of total exposure risk, depending on scenario.
Our model assumes that a single farm, contained within a single integrator group in Sussex County, becomes infected by and subsequently infectious with an AI virus.
Similar(33)
Our use of a range of farms that a given service vehicle could visit in a day implies a similar, but not exact, spatial distribution of farms within integrator groups, which does integrate spatial information a very limited way into our model.
Modeling efforts focused on between-farm pathogen transmission in the context of industrial food animal production should explicitly include data on integrator groups, rather than just spatial factors.
Farms affiliated with different integrator groups had minimal risk at 2 days of infectiousness (<2%), with the exposure risk at 15 days of infectiousness approximately 8% [mean = 8.5 (5.5–14.0%)].
"The current portfolio recommends a number of leading progressive integrators -- groups that are conveners and facilitators of cooperation that create operating efficiencies and cost effectiveness -– and innovators -– that are utilizing new technologies to gather and analyze data, inform, organize, mobilize key constituencies and which facilitate social networking.
These results suggest that attention to the economic structure of the poultry industry, specifically integrator-level groups and business practices, may be critically important in estimating the risk of outbreak in areas dominated by industrial-scale animal production.
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