Every single credible economic institution has forecast that our economy would take a hit.
The data follow downward revisions at several leading institutions' growth forecasts for the year.
Neither of these institutions, while forecasting the implications of the coalition's renewed austerity plan, believes they are realistic.
For example, at least one forecast institution after-the-fact, demanded its forecasters to report in print that its model had correctly forecast the major El Niño event as early as December 1996.1 This casts doubt on official statements about success rates for forecasting the onset of El Niño events (NB: Please read the two articles published in the same journal 8 months apart in 1999).
The I.M.F., the Washington-based lending institution, cut its forecasts for global growth, as it has done in nine of its last 10 economic updates.
Table 4 Accuracy of 1-month and 1-year forecasts Institution Median Direction (Delta S_{i,t+k}) 50 pesos Direction (Delta S_{i,t+k}) 50 pesos k = 1 month k = 1 month k = 1 year k = 1 year Commercial banks 15 66 64 35 9 Stock brokers 19 65 61 43 15 Pension funds 5 65664920 20 Source: authors' calculations.
George Osborne has been told by the International Monetary Fund to rethink the pace of his deficit reduction plan after the Washington based institution cut its forecast for UK growth in both 2013 and 2014.
THE IMF is the latest institution to slash its forecasts for Britain's economy.
The head of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, said on Wednesday that 2013 would be a make-or-break year for the global economy, as the Washington-based institution trimmed its growth forecasts for the US, Britain and the eurozone.
The BBC radio service is something of an institution, metronomically broadcasting four forecasts a day since 1924, a routine which failed for the first time at 5.20am on Friday.
