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Age was the only significant predictor of non RTW 2 years after initial sick leave.
RTW/non RTW 3 months after second consultation and 12 and 24 months after initial sick leave were analysed.
People with prior unemployment have lower probability of being in the work state one year after initial sick listing, and the gradient is steeper in the recession period.
12 months after initial sick leave, perceived reduced ability to walk far due to the complaints, pain intensity during activities, and physiotherapy prior to participation in the trial, were the strongest predictors for non RTW.
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The time scale was days in the follow-up period since the initial sick-listing period.
These predictor variables were recorded at the first day of the initial sick-listing and not updated subsequently.
Here we focused on the prediction for the status one year after the initial sick-listing period.
The results show that men have a better chance than women of being in the work state one year after the initial sick-listing.
For example, two persons who have the same predicted short term chance of moving to the work state will have different long term chances of being in the work state one year after the initial sick-listing, if their short term risk of moving to the disability pension state differs.
In Finland there is no return to work certificate but the patient returns to work when sick leave days on the initial sickness certificate have passed.
Studies identifying that at least the initial sickness certification is predominantly patient controlled [ 23, 24] indicate the competence of the sick-listed.
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