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Since the influenza time series is recorded as weekly observations, the seasonality period is 52.
In our analysis we took the logarithmic transformation to reduce the variances of the influenza time series, and subsequently differenced the series until it is stationary.
The influenza time series that we analyzed in this study is characterized by a strong autocorrelation, a property that commonly violates the ordinary linear regression.
We note that our findings with RSV were somewhat less clear-cut than those seen with influenza, which may reflect a higher degree of autocorrelation in the RSV time series than in the influenza time series, with resultant distortion of effects when exposures at multiple lags were introduced into models.
Similarly, the disease notifications data used to prepare the pertussis and influenza time series have some limitations.
The method of analogs, currently employed by FSN, uses weighted sums of vectors selected from historical influenza time series that match current activity to construct forecasted incidences (7 ).
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"This is very bad news, indeed," said Fouchier in The Influenza Times account of his presentation.
Fouchier's group used the popular ferret model, and as reported in the conference newspaper, The Influenza Times, a mere five mutations made the virus transmissible.
Like many environmental and epidemiological time-series data, the PM2.5 and influenza time-series data are subject to non-stationary properties which are usually complex [ 24].
"It's a very strange thing to see that amount of influenza this time of year," said Jernigan.
These features are illustrated by the application of the method to H5N1 influenza infection time series in humans.
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