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Economies have always been prone to different kinds of shocks: economic downturn, industry shocks, currency crises, which can destabilize the path and pattern of regional economic growth.
Firms merge for a variety of sound reasons, such as to create synergies, to consolidate in response to industry shocks like deregulation, to deal with increased competition, or to take advantage of developments in how acquisitions are financed.
In either case, the U.S. industry shocks are a valid instrument as long as they do not forecast unmeasured industry-level demand shocks in China.
Essentially, the argument is that U.S. industry shocks identify a policy-relevant treatment effect (PRTE) (Heckman and Vytlacil 2005) with respect to the types of remigration policy changes China might realistically implement.
Using these industry shocks as instrument for the probability that a venture capitalist working in China is foreign-educated, I examine whether the resulting estimates of the productivity gap differ markedly from my previous estimates.
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They found that merger waves were most likely when an industry shock had resulted in spare capacity, prompting efficient firms to take over weaker ones.
Only among African-Americans is there no impact of industry demand shocks.
"It is an audacious deal that shocked the industry and shocked the people who watch the company," says Robert Young, a financial analyst at Canaccord Genuity.
Among Hispanics too the generally negative impacts of rising unemployment shown above are mirrored by the negative effects on their relative wages of negative industry demand shocks.
Japan's nuclear industry was shocked.
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