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The results indicate that the forecasts have skill; outperforming a persistence forecast and demonstrating reliability, resolution and discrimination.
Our recent advances in seasonal climate forecasts indicate that the forecasts in this region have considerable skill (i.e., predictive ability) [ 27, 28].
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The κ values indicate that the forecast magnitude distributions are all consistent with the observation.
Smaller values of RMSE indicate that the forecast is a closer approximation of the measured value.
But he indicated that the forecasts also depended on the success of a bond swap that forms part of the debt deal and under which holders of Greek debt have been asked to accept a 50 percent write-down on the value of their bonds.
end{aligned}The discrepancy between the actual number and the predicted number of TCs indicated that the forecast (in what?) is slightly lower than reality (see Fig. 7; Table 3).
From the figure we can not find any visible difference among the trends of these sequences, indicating that the forecast error growths at different analysis time are very similar.
Thus a positive error indicates that the forecast was too high, a negative error that it was too low.
These results indicate that forecast probabilities by those models are not so biased and that their reliability may be fairly good.
The results indicate that the individual forecasting engines do not consistently forecast short-term wind speed for the two sites, and the proposed combination method can generate a more reliable and accurate forecast.
While complex and more suited to large-scale operations, tests accounting for different experimental scenarios indicate that the overall forecast errors are lower than 10%81810%81
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com