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2. A late incumbency effect?
Based on the limited data available, there is no discernible incumbency effect.
But estimates that at least wrestle with this incumbency effect are going to be more accurate than ones that don't.
At the latest count, 73 are retiring, around one-fifth of the total, and their incumbency effect retires with them.
The incumbency effect in the UK is relatively weak overall, particularly as compared to the United States, for a number of reasons.
I don't really see the Tories having any white rabbits up their sleeve – all they can hope for is a late incumbency effect".
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Do similar incumbency effects exist in more party-centered environments?
We estimate incumbency effects in an open-list proportional representation system, exploiting that seats are first allocated across parties, and then to candidates within party lists.
But in general, incumbency effects are rather weak in Britain (Liberal Democrat MPs are a slight exception, because their party has a habit of building seats into strongholds through years of hyper-local campaigning).
Throughout the paper, we highlight how these findings can be related to an incumbency externality effect and to the theory of divided government.
Still, the incumbency issue in Albany is ripe for attention.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com