For each incidence estimate, we quote the estimator evaluated at the observed counts (the maximum likelihood estimate) and a confidence interval expressed as the central 95th percentile.
The total tuberculosis incidence estimate was based on much more data, evenly spread out in the estimation period 1990 2015.
The Swaziland HIV Incidence Measurement Survey (SHIMS) provides the first national HIV incidence estimate based on prospectively observed HIV seroconversions.
According to Agresti and Coull method [30], such a study would a mean incidence estimate of [95%% confidence interval] 15%% [12.5; 17.9].
There were 173 and 570 admissions finally categorized as ADE-related and control admissions (inter-rater agreement corresponding kappa test = 0.97), respectively, resulting in an incidence estimate of ADE-related admissions at 23.3 % [95%% confidence interval (CI) 20.4 26.5].
Note that the above procedure will increase the 95% credible interval around the global incidence estimate as more uncertainty is taken into account.
With the above model, three types of incidences can be estimated: Global incidence μ, a common incidence estimate not taking into account heterogeneity between the studies.
The smallest (Simhon et al [52]) and largest (Mata et al [48]) estimated values are most modified towards the pooled incidence estimate.
Including the studies with possible high risk of bias does not change the pooled 'global' incidence estimate, but the credible interval decreases slightly: 0.24 [0.24; 0.24].
To illustrate the magnitude of the bias, Figure 2 shows the difference between the McDougal incidence estimate and the equilibrium incidence, expressed as a percentage.
The BED and testing history are used to estimate prevalence among non-testers and impute data for testers to calculate a population-based incidence estimate.
