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Differences among the forecasts of the models reflect both differences in model design, and actual uncertainty in the forecast of the possible future SST scenario.
"The overall outlook remains relatively favorable: inflation should remain subdued and economic expansion should continue," the organization said in the forecast of its 29 member countries.
After the withering summer last year, officials at Consolidated Edison took solace in the forecast of merely "average" heat this year.
"The error we're seeing in the forecast of something like the storm on the East Coast is probably close to the limit of technology today," he said.
Put differently, a change in 0.5 percent in the forecast of Obama's vote share corresponds to a change in a bit more than 10 percent in his probability of winning.
The volume of elementary basin needed in the forecast of displacements (7) is expressed with the formula (12).
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The shaded area indicates the zone in which the forecast of the tested model outperforms the forecast of the reference model at a level of significance α=1%.
Less controversial was the steady improvement in the forecasts of tropical-storm tracks.
Yet these fantastic leaps in computation have achieved little real improvement in the forecasting of specific weather conditions.
The assumption that such strong collections would continue played a major role in the forecasts of budget surpluses as far as the eye could see.
Yet hidden in the forecasts of the Office for Budget Responsibility OBRR) is an assumption that implies most homebuyers will be made worse off by the tax cut.
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