In the case of forecasts over periods larger than 5 years (for instance 30 years), we found (working over the last decades) that a dynamical calculation based on the coupled Earth dynamo model can outperform a linear extrapolation.
That is, in the present figures, the reference period goes back to 1946, for example, in the case of the forecast for 1989.
In the case of output forecasting, the Romers suggest that the Fed's advantage may in fact be, at least in part, a result of better access to data since the Fed manages the collection of information used to compute the index of industrial production.
For example, in the case of hurricane forecasts, visualization scientists are tasked with providing policymakers with visual displays that will inform their decision on when to call for mandatory evacuations and how to allocate emergency management resources.
The sky may be brightening, but that's no reason to ignore the weather report -- and in the case of Congress, the forecast is "clueless with a chance of catastrophe".
These questions are investigated in the current paper in the case of contaminant transport forecasting in braided river aquifers.
This factor came up repeatedly in decisions involving physical as well as financial danger, negatively impacting the practical value of EP (for example in the case of sea ice forecasts).
Such a short-range forecast could be helpful in determining the resources required to treat those infected in the attack, although once a widespread response to the attack is mounted (e.g., distribution of antimicrobial agents, in the case of anthrax), the forecasts lose their validity (8).
In the case of output growth, the optimal forecast would combine both the private and the Fed forecasts, though it would give more weight to the Fed's forecast.
