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It has not, however, blunted her confidence in a forecasting methodology that involves analysing massive quantities of data.
I used to be annoyed when the margin of error was high in a forecasting model that I might put together.
While the semivariance (lower partial moment degree 2) has been variously described as being more in line with investors' attitude towards risk, implementation in a forecasting portfolio management role has been hampered by computational problems.
As a consequence, the resulting components used to forecast the value of a particular moment are computed using information from future values, which are not available at that particular moment in a forecasting exercise.
The Good Judgment Project competed as one of five teams in a forecasting tournament sponsored by American intelligence agencies, who funded the competition in an effort to learn how to make better predictions after the intelligence failures in 2006, when the United States invaded Iraq believing that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction.
Firstly, we apply a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and a Psi-Sigma Network (PSN) architecture in a forecasting and trading exercise on the EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF exchange rates and explore the utility of Kalman Filter, Genetic Programming (GP) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) algorithms as forecasting combination techniques.
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"Reflective of the current global economic environment," the agency wrote in a forecast summary, "international travel is forecasted to decline by 8percentt in 2009".
Deutsche Bank, in a forecast issued this week, was even more pessimistic.
In a forecast on October 14th, the five main economic institutes predicted growth of just 0.2%.
In my view, it's in estimating the uncertainty in a forecast where most of the challenge and intrigue lies.
Adelaide will be even warmer, with a string of days over 30C culminating in a forecast 35C on Monday.
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