TOKYO — Japan's jobless rate fell below 5 percent in January for the first time in nearly a year and job availability rose, in a sign steady improvements in exports and output are spreading to other sectors of the economy.
This development, it found, would offset expected improvements in exports.
At the same time, overseas demand for exports also has improved somewhat in recent months and has led to a marked improvement in export orders, according to the survey published Thursday.
But China is likely to see some improvement in export demand as the U.S. and Western European economies improve, said Tao Wang, the chief China economist at UBS Investment Bank in Hong Kong.
In the United States, "the slowdown is now forecast not to deteriorate to recession levels in 1986 as a result of the beneficial effects of lower interest rates, lower energy costs and a gradual improvement in export performance," it said.
The implication is that the improvement in export values in current prices in the post-AoA period was due, to some extent, to improved terms of trade rather than increased volume flows.
In some countries, the improvement in exports in the post-AoA period was due to improved domestic conditions or world market conditions unrelated to the AoA.
An improvement in exports -- the object of the game -- never materialized as trade dried up worldwide.
On Monday, Mr. Gaspar, the finance minister, highlighted a recent improvement in exports, which will leave Portugal this year with a trade surplus for the first time in 20 years.
Of the 3.2% total growth pace, 3.02 percentage points were contributed by personal consumption.Gains were also attributable to a nice improvement in exports.
