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The main goal of S2S is to improve forecast skill and understanding of the sub-seasonal to seasonal timescale, and to promote its uptake by operational centers and use by the applications communities.
Moreover, water height observations had a negative impact on discharge forecasts for longer lead times although they did improve forecast skill for 1 and 3 days (up to 60 m3/s/km).
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The 1/32° system also exhibits improved forecast skill in relation to the 1/16° system.
The fly ISI time series show a weak but consistent improved forecast skill with increasing Θ, exhibiting a nonlinear signature (Fig. 6a).
Currently, he is working on applying the techniques he developed so far to the study of supercell storms, with the hope of improving forecasting skills.
The idea is for the two communities to work together on addressing this gap between the weather forecast and the seasonal climate forecast, and to improve the forecast skill in that range and make forecasts that are useful to different stakeholders.
Could they improve forecasting?
In order to improve drought forecasting skill, this study develops a probabilistic drought forecasting framework comprised of dynamical and statistical modeling components.
Often, fault interaction models do not improve earthquake forecasting skill We define a simple parameter that indicates when fault interaction matters We find some requirements to get a time synchronization of faults.
A skill score of 0 represents no improvement of forecast skill relative to climatology.
The method of S-maps relies on fitting a series of models (from linear to nonlinear) where the degree of nonlinearity is controlled by a local weighting parameter Θ. Improved out-of-sample forecast skill with increasingly nonlinear models (larger Θ) indicates that the underlying dynamics were themselves nonlinear [53].
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