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For example, a positive result on a very improbable hypothesis is likely a false positive, while a positive result on a more probable hypothesis is more likely to be true.
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Nothing is more natural than speculation in the face of mystery, but this welter of improbable hypotheses highlights the peculiar economic incentives of punditry.
This represents a more plausible interpretation than the improbable alternative hypothesis of concurrent gene deletion or inactivation in multiple ancestral lineages.
Examples are the improbable Marsupionta hypothesis (monophyly of {Monotremata, Marsupialia}) that was based on analyses of complete mitochondrial genomes [ 16- 18], which later was refuted several times due to morphological evidence and because of results obtained with alignments of nuclear genes [ 19- 23].
Nuclear disaster seems a distant hypothesis, improbable; the prospect of it is, however, always with us.
"There is nothing improbable about the hypothesis of arsenic poisoning," wrote Frank McLynn in "Napoleon: A Biography" (Arcade, 2002).
However, the fact that these fossils have been assigned to much younger, relatively derived clades renders this hypothesis improbable, as it would require multiple secondary losses of characters across the ochrophyte tree.
However, there is no evidence of endospore formation or other engulfment processes in Archaea, making this hypothesis improbable.
van Inwagen (1996) claims that his defensive stories are not – unlike general skeptical hypotheses – improbable relative to what we know.
Dr McKay admits his hypothesis sounds improbable.
At the moment, it's probably best considered not much stronger than informed speculation, but it certainly not unreasonable as a hypothesis or improbable.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com