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The new approach quantifies the impacts of scenario uncertainty on peak cooling load, chiller life cycle cost (LCC), and also on annual set point unmet hours based on the Monte Carlo method and dynamic simulation.
The scenario analysis portion of this agenda requires a model capable of capturing the impacts of scenario assumptions and a database for representing the scenarios.
The impacts on land conversion would be, based on our assumed elasticities with respect to land demand, a decline of deforestation and peatland conversion by −0.27 and −0.48%, respectively, which are more than three times the impacts of scenario 1.
Values of ∆Y N and ∆Y R are derived from Tables 2 and 3 for identifying the impacts of scenario 1 (direct damages across the economic sectors due to Sidr); and scenario 2 (in addition to direct damages, changes in government investment decisions and the spending practices of individual consumers in response to cyclone Sidr) respectively.
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The impacts of scenarios are reported under future climatic conditions as well as for the 'steady state' response.
Indicators allow to analyze trends and impacts of scenarios.
The above-mentioned tools are used to assess environmental or social impacts of scenarios.
Literature (e.g. [6, 7]) shows that the impacts of scenarios may be divided in impacts on process and on content.
The SAFS assessment framework [31] suggests in this context to reiterate the assessment of social impacts of scenarios by considering the resulting environmental impacts of scenarios as contextual factors in the second round of assessment e.g. what an increased use of minerals might mean for social aspects such as health.
The impact of scenario uncertainty was to a large extent found to be case-specific, thus emphasizing the need for scenario planning in every individual case.
"This is really difficult stuff to quantify," says Thomas Chermack, an assistant professor at Colorado State University who is one of the few academics to study the impact of scenario planning.
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