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The shortfall at the moment stands at £35, but that is projected to rise to £108 by 2020 if benefit rates do not change.
The program's spending would certainly have grown if benefit rules had remained as they were in 2007, but much less than it actually did.
Imran Hussain, head of policy at the Child Poverty Action Group, said: "There is a political imperative to be seen as tough, and it paints a misleading picture, as if benefit claimants are all supplicants and potential fraudsters.
The point is that we shouldn't be doing benefit cuts at all; but if benefit cuts are the price of a deal that is better than no deal, much better that they involve the CPI adjustment than the retirement age.
If benefit cuts are the reason, then we might expect the decline in births to be sharpest in relatively poorer, younger areas such as inner Birmingham and Manchester and London boroughs such as Newham.
The only benefit, if benefit it was, was the small television set he bought and put in the living room, where he would lie on the sofa under one of his mother's quilts and watch men wrestling anacondas, riding motorcycles inside enormous wooden barrels.
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Researchers will follow the children from ages 6 to 9 to see if benefits continue.
Larger effects would probably arise if benefits were extended beyond the ninth grade.
And even if benefits are cut and taxes raised, they said, there is no obvious fix in sight.
He reckons that the unemployment rate would be 6.8% rather than 9.5% if benefits had remained at 26 weeks.
People there know that even if benefits are cut they won't be thrown to the wolves.
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