As a consequence, the dropout risk for apprentices is significantly lower if apprenticeship training is profitable on average, as a firm will be more likely to spend additional resources to prevent dropouts of weak apprentices.
This is why we predict an 80% decline in apprenticeship numbers if the funding reforms are fully implemented.
Thus, the evidence for German firms shows that firms are more likely to be willing to bear an initial net investment in apprenticeship training if the expected tenure of former apprentices is sufficiently high – such that the investment pays off in the long run.
"For instance, if the apprenticeship strategy or the plan to build 200,000 homes a year by the end of the parliament is not implemented from a very early stage, we will not meet these targets.
Meanwhile, law schools, which would have the most to lose if an apprenticeship model were introduced, are seen by many in the profession as in need of being reined in.
If direct apprenticeship is required, as long as this is of short duration, such as weeks, it could quickly spread exponentially through the population.
"I know smaller firms are sometimes disappointed by their first foray into apprenticeships if they don't attract the right calibre of candidate.
But even then they feel people in worse jobs might offer themselves only if the new apprenticeships paid for their training.
