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The economic benefits in terms of Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) are based on forecasts for the major TCO-influencing parameters up to 2030: electric driving distances, energy (fuel, electricity, hydrogen) prices, batteries and fuel cell costs.
Assuming specific hydrogen prices the study shows that the design of the pricing system has major impact on the financial situation of single actors and consequently on the success of the hydrogen initiative.
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Fuel cell buses can reduce the energy consumption by 58%, and emit 67% less LCA CO2eq than the conventional diesel bus, and achieve compensatory payback of 0.620 $/km (depending on the hydrogen price).
The reduced use of the FCCHP can also be observed when the hydrogen price drops.
For the reference case, the hydrogen price is set as 7.5 €/kg and the resulted payback time is only 1.49 years.
Based on a projected technology improvement by 2020, sensitivity analysis is conducted to illustrate how much the hydrogen-based EES is sensitive to variations of the hydrogen price and the capacity of hydrogen storage.
In recent studies from the EU, focusing on evolutionary technologies such as HEV or hydrogen, price characteristics play a more important role as the consumers are much more familiar with the performance attributes.
Also, in the case of electrolysis, hydrogen cost sensitivity to the price of electricity has been examined.
For all scenarios, a hydrogen cost below the current hydrogen retail price of 9.5 Euro/kg at German fueling stations is obtained.
The proposed system is economically feasible at hydrogen purchase price of $30/GJ and natural gas price of $10/GJ or less.
A sensitivity analysis is further conducted, which illustrates how the hydrogen selling price and the capacity of hydrogen storage would affect the overall economic performance.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com