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Such a huge default could also set off a chain reaction, prompting other airlines to reduce their own costly pension plans to stay competitive.
The murkiness was highlighted this week when Argentina seemed to offer, under duress, to negotiate with the 8% of its bondholders who refused to accept any losses after a huge default in 2001.
Spurred by the huge default rates for corporate debt in the last three years, the three major credit rating agencies Standard & Poor's, Moody's and Fitch have embarked on an orgy of downgrades.
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Junk bonds are trading as if recession and huge defaults are just around the corner, at premiums to Treasury bond yields that exceed those of the 1998 panic.
Mr. Schlein said he was by no means certain of making money; if unemployment had skyrocketed to 12 percent, for example, he would have expected to lose from huge defaults.
Given that a huge sovereign default could occur in scarcely more than a month, there is strangely little nervousness.Why the exuberance?
As banks and other financial institutions grapple with huge loan defaults, they turn to workout specialists for help.
As 2009 began, the credit crisis was a dominant theme, with worries of huge corporate defaults and an inability of companies to find lenders.
"The problem is, if you just focussed on the people who defaulted you create this huge incentive to default," Orszag replied.
The chaos at Argentina's banks last year precipitated January's huge government debt default and currency devaluation.
Somehow, the pair managed in record time to lift the country out of its huge $82bn sovereign default, one of the largest in history.
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