We conducted a simulation study to investigate how estimates of the reproduction number changed with the method of estimation, the role of over-dispersion in the secondary cases distribution and of epidemic curve aggregation at increasingly large time steps.
But Mr. Bush was burned in the past by bad intelligence and he said he welcomed the change in how estimates are done.
Now, in an article in The Atlantic magazine, Mr. Pollack anguishes over how estimates of Iraq's capabilities could have been so far off.
The shift has been documented by Jonathan A. Parker and Annette Vissing-Jorgenson, finance professors at Northwestern University, in their recent paper, "Who Bears Aggregate Fluctuations and How? Estimates and Implications for Consumption Inequality".
How estimates based on real-time telecomunications measures compare to or improve those estimates is an open question for future research.
An industrial application illustrates model implementation and shows how estimates can be updated using information arising during development test and analysis.
