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Those who study historical fire patterns argue that the sources of ignition are irrelevant.
Indeed, one of the Science report's co-authors, Tom Swetnam, a specialist in the study of tree rings at the University of Arizona, has long studied the influence of climate on historical fire patterns.
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The different topographies in the two landscapes likely result in different wind intensities, fuel moistures, and fuel/vegetation types and consequently, different historical fire spread patterns.
We derived a fuel load map from a stand map and a burn probability map based on historical fire records and potential wildfire spread pattern.
"How should future fire patterns compare to this historical variability?
We used field data, landscape metrics derived from digital elevation models, and spectral information from remotely sensed imagery to (1) determine recent changes in forest stand structure in relation to historical fire exclusion, (2) quantify the effects of fire exclusion on fuel accumulation patterns, and (3) develop predictive vegetation and fuels maps for our study area.
Here, we use 29 years of historical fire mapping to quantify the relationship between annual wildfire area and antecedent fire area in predominantly shrub and grassland fuels in seven southern California counties, controlling for annual variation in weather patterns.
Using historical fire records for the region, we predicted spatially-explicit fire frequencies and ignition probabilities.
Forest ecosystems characterized by infrequent stand replacement fires also experienced moderate departure from historical fire conditions.
8Simulates wildfire with STANDCARB, using historical fire regimes to set burn frequency and severity.
Year 2000 conditions reflect 600 simulated years of contemporary climate and the historical fire regime.
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