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His forecasters optimistically assume that economically sensitive tax revenues will go up twice as fast as labor costs.
He said his forecasters believed early evidence that consumers would spend about as much money this holiday season as last.
In the longer term that clarity should be an advantage for Mr Carney providing, of course, that this time his forecasters have got their sums right.
Last year, Shah and his forecasters published a report, listing the next biggest threats.
Even expert forecasters may fall into certain traps, so Tetlock's team decided to test whether an hours' simple training could help his forecasters avoid the most common mistakes.
He is reluctant to give too many details of the methods, in case it influences his forecasters' future performance, but he points out that too often forecasters begin by taking an "inside view" of a problem; when considering whether Mugabe would remain in power, for instance, they might begin by looking for measures of unrest in the country.
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This week, the president of the E.C.B., Jean-Claude Trichet, spoke optimistically about a coming revival of the Continent's economic fortunes, but his own forecasters are more glum, predicting a contraction of 2 to 3percentt in 2009, and minimal growth at best next year.
Robert J. Coen, the Magna Global senior executive known for his forecasts of advertising trends (his title is "chief forecaster"), said of the climate for television advertising: "It doesn't look like it's going to be very good for a long time".
In addition to helping the NWS challenge European forecasters, his program will break down barriers between weather and climate researchers.
And like many other market forecasters, his overall performance was "very poor" compared with that of basic stock index funds, said Mark Hulbert, editor of The Hulbert Financial Digest, which has tracked the performance of investment advisory newsletters since 1980.
This evening I met with Angus Campbell of Atlantic Marine Services and his in-house forecaster, to go over the buoy data, weather and swell forecasts for the next few days.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com