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In a report yesterday, Ms. Fine reduced her estimates for 2003 to call for growth in United States ad spending of 2.8percentt rather than 3.1percentt and growth in worldwide ad spending of 1.9percentt rather than 2percentt.
"Yes, business was weak to begin with, though things were actually picking up before the Sept. 11 tragedy," said Jessica Reif Cohen, a media analyst at Merrill Lynch, who reduced her estimates for the News Corporation weeks ago.
The analyst who follows Madison Avenue for Merrill Lynch & Company, Lauren Rich Fine, has reduced her estimates for growth in advertising spending this year and next, partly because of lagging growth for local ads as well as ads appearing in newspapers.
But when a reporter later asked the study's author, Katharine Harrington, a Lewin Group vice president, for a further analysis, she lowered her estimates for potential savings to 23percentto33percentcent for brand and generic drugs, and to 20percentto30percentcent for brand-name drugs only.
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She left unchanged her estimate for worldwide ad spending, calling for growth of 5.5percentt.
And AOL's operating profit could fall by $251 million, 14percentt of her estimate for this year.
Ms. Fine left unchanged her estimate for 2002 American ad spending, at 0.7percentt.
Ms. Fine reduced her estimate for United States ad spending this year to a gain of 6.5percentt over 2003 rather than 6.6percentt.
For instance, Lauren Rich Fine, who follows the agency industry for Merrill Lynch, yesterday raised her estimate for ad spending gains in 2004 from 6percentto6.6percentcent.
While Ms. Fine predicted slower growth in ad spending in newspapers and radio, she increased her estimate for ad-spending growth in broadcast television this year.
Last week, Ms. Kissel lowered her estimate for 2000 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization, or Ebitda, to about $400 million, or about $2.28 a share, from her earlier one of $435 million, or $2.47 a share.
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