In India, where government action has traditionally proved more a burden than a catalyst for economic growth, election-year anxiety intensified by the global recession ensures that the decisions that move local markets are now less likely to come from entrepreneurs in Mumbai than from lawmakers in Delhi.
Bartels, in his book "Unequal Democracy," points out a strong correlation between voting in Presidential elections and income growth during election years, rather than income growth over the full length of a Presidency.
Previous posts have more detail on the relationship between job growth and election outcomes.
In Indonesia, the benchmark stock index closed 4.7 percent higher, and in India, where slowing growth, looming elections and a large current-account deficit have helped undermine investor confidence, the Sensex index closed up 3.3 percent.
Erikson and Wlezien's model simply takes into account continued quarter growth for elections since 1952, and uses the 10 leading economic variables (which are shown to be representative of overall strength in the economy), with quarters closer to the election weighted more heavily.
No. Central-bank independence became a reality when politicians finally accepted that it was economically foolish for them to manage interest rates they just could not resist the temptation to try to boost growth before elections, even if this was bad policy.
The Tory revival was helped by Chancellor Reginald Maudling's "run for growth" pre-election Budget.
Given that states have long considered elections a purely domestic matter, the dramatic growth of international election monitoring in the 1990s was remarkable.
Fourteen paying members of the Democratic Socialists of America, which has experienced explosive growth since the election, now serve in elected office across the country, the organization says.
Common sense indicators like gross domestic product and job growth during the election year have historically explained about 30 percent or 40 percent of election results (but not more than that).
