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Even in radically complex environments, they should try to come up with their best estimates of how likely a policy is to succeed, as well as its potential payoff, and then pursue the policy with the greatest expected value.
The code of rules that rule-consequentialism favours (that is, rules that are not too numerous, too complicated, or too demanding) can sometimes lead agents to do acts that do not have the greatest expected value.
A correct decision was defined to be the decision that results in the greatest expected value (Figure 4B). Figure 3A shows that participants made significantly more mistakes against trustworthy opponents (Blue; Mean = −1.76%, SE = .55%) than neutral (Green; Mean = .74%, SE = .40%) and untrustworthy opponents (Red; Mean = 1.02%, SE = .70%).
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Yet there is probably a limit on how complicated or complex a code can be and still have greater expected value than simpler codes, once teaching costs are included.
An implication of this is that we should make changes to the status quo where but only where these changes have greater expected value than sticking with the status quo.
A threshold value was reached within our range of estimates for the effectiveness of anticoagulant prophylaxis for preventing DVT (threshold 0.80, range of estimates 0.33 to 0.82; Figure 5), suggesting that providing LMWH would have a greater expected value than withholding LMWH only if its effectiveness for preventing DVT exceeded 80%.
But it does take into account that the view that an act can be considered at least as good for a person than an alternate act if the actual value the one act generates for that person is at least as great as the expected value the alternate act generates for that person is inconsistent (Roberts 2009).
We found that in 12 of the 13 real networks (except the dolphin association network), C is greater than the expected value determined from its randomly rewired networks, and this difference is statistically significant in 7 cases (Table S1).
Because we assume the economic value of urban expansion will always be greater than the value of any avoided emission credit, avoided deforestation and credit generation only occurs in grid cells where cropland is predicted to emerge from forest between 2000 and 2015 but the value of the credit is greater than the expected value of the new cropland.
The observed Moran index was 0.22 which was greater than its expected value -0.0066, indicating systematic clustering in the region.
The Moran's I index was greater than its expected value indicating systematic geographical clustering of EC.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com