With the global outlook clouded by conflicting indicators, what OPEC's members apparently have fixed on is the gradual slide in demand for oil.
It also predicted a growth in resources "including US shale oil and gas, Canadian oil sands and Brazilian deepwater, plus a gradual decline in demand, that would see [North America] become almost totally energy self-sufficient" in two decades.
Also, the current oil spike has been caused, for the most part, not by war or revolution but by a gradual increase in demand, primarily from China and the United States, whereas in the past every oil shock that accompanied a major slowdown was the product of political or military upheaval — a limit on supply.
In particular, he highlighted three potential measures: –Gradual response to demand.
"Looking beyond the near term we expect to see only a gradual pent-up demand-driven recovery in retail spending," Martin van Vliet, an economist at ING, said in a research note.
Mr. Liu, a longtime human rights advocate and writer, was detained on Dec. 8, 2008, for playing a leading role in drafting Charter 08, which demands gradual political and legal reforms based on constitutional principles.
Qatar walks a tightrope in balancing the need to respond to international criticism quickly and a domestic situation that demands gradual change.
A gradual improvement in overseas demand in recent months also has helped.
The domestic market remains the dominant driver of manufacturing activity, although there are some encouraging signs from a rise in export flows that the gradual revival in Eurozone demand is beginning to feed through to manufacturers' order books.
China's mild re-acceleration has been helped by a gradual recovery in overseas demand for Chinese-made goods in recent months, as well as a string of economic stimulus measures announced by the government over the course of last year.
"We're optimistic we'll continue to see solid sales through the balance of the year with gradual improvement in core demand, but we still view 2010 as a year of transition for our industry, and it will likely be 2011 before we see significant growth," he said.
