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Tony Paley: Tidal Bay has been given top weight of 11st 10lbyby senior British handicapper, Phil Smith for the Grand National at Aintree in April.
He also had the option of riding Carlingford Lough but the Irish Hennessy winner is now unlikely to run after being given top weight 11st 10lbs for the race.
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The one serious bit of rainfall last week started in the half-hour before the handicap in which he was due to carry top weight, giving 25lb or more to his 16 rivals.
The 2015 winner, burdened with top weight of 11st 10lb, gave Leighton Aspell another fine spin over these fences as far as the fifth-last, where he made a most uncharacteristic mistake that signalled the end of his challenge.
Many Clouds was only 1lb below the top weight in last year's race, however, and, given his course form, seems likely to be allotted 11st 10lb this time around.
Being top weight may tell on Synchronised.
Another twist: recent forecasts from top-ranked analysts are given more weight than older estimates.
Given the weight of the water on top, this is fiendishly difficult and will not be ready until 2014.
But top weights have a rotten record in Nationals over the past 30-odd years and I think Smith is right to compress differences at the top, giving those horses something like a fair shake.
Given the weight of the evidence, though, it seemed unlikely.
This means that this year's performances are given more weight.
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