Table 5 Total pension expenditure and reduction by scenario (2021 2071) Expenditure (% GDP) Reduction (p.p.
Specifically, it could lead (in scenario 4) to a 1.4 p.p. of the GDP reduction of expenditure by 2051 (see Fig. 9c in the Appendix C).
As seen in this paper, it could lead to a 3.2 p.p. of the GDP reduction of expenditure by 2051 (Table 5) in an extreme scenario, compared with the 3.7 p.p. of GDP reduction under the 2011 reform, based on the same methodology and the same demographic scenario as in Conde-Ruiz and González (2013 .24.
Conde-Ruiz and González (2013) demonstrated, using the same methodology and the same demographic scenario as in this article, that the 2011 reform (in which the calculation period was extended, retirement age was increased to 67 and a modified replacement rate was applied to the reference wage) may imply a 3.7 p.p. of GDP reduction of expenditure by 2051.
Likewise, TTP promotes GDP reduction, and dGTP promotes ADP reduction (Brown and Reichard, 1969; Rofougaran et al., 2008; von Döbeln and Reichard, 1976).
With exports worth a third of GDP, a reduction in export growth of just 1% is sufficient to lower economic growth by 0.3%.
Since financial crises are associated with long-run losses in GDP, a reduction in the probability of a crisis generates marginal benefits.
Furthermore, increased public medical expenditures as a share of GDP also generate reductions in infant and child mortality.
7 The large tax distortions and increasing survival of the population leads to substantial GDP per capita reductions: £77, £79 and £69 in the short, medium and long terms (Table 2).
The economic and humanitarian catastrophe is unprecedented in peacetime: 27% unemployment, 60% youth unemployment, a 25% shrinking of GDP, 40% reduction in family income.
