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The current exchange rate is determined by what the future exchange rate is expected to be.
It is routine even for smaller companies to hedge on financial markets, insuring themselves against future exchange rate movements.
This means the demand for yen will depend not only on the current exchange rate, but also on anticipations of future exchange rate movements.
Either the country credibly forswears any future exchange rate adjustment - by adopting a currency board, or starting off down the road to monetary union - or it must restrict capital movement.
And it's true that the simplest version of Mundell-Fleming assumes that interest rates are equalized by capital flows, taking no account of expectations of future exchange rate changes.
Keeping the pound could be a solution if the UK can run an independent monetary policy, but in a world of open capital markets that can only be done if uncertainty about the future exchange rate drives a currency wedge between UK and Euroland interest rates.
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Some investors are betting that rates will be even lower in the future or that future exchange rates will make them profitable.
Evans and Lyons (2005), for example, use order flows as a successful determinant of future exchange rates.
Under adaptive expectations, investors use current forecast errors to predict future exchange rates.
Frenkel (1976) was one of the pioneers to test for the unbiasedness of forward rates as predictors of future exchange rates (both variables measured in levels).
To uncover whether the interest-parity condition held for the London investment demand for long-bills of exchange, the standard assumption that expectations correspond with future exchange rates, or (Eleft [s_{t+m}^right ]=s_{t+m}^), is introduced (see Coleman 2012, p. 27).
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