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A study by Lamont's Park Williams found that anthropogenic climate change was responsible for just over half of the total observed increase in fuel dryness since 1979.
The scientists used the dryness of the climate to determine the dryness of the forests themselves, using eight metrics that corresponded with fuel dryness and fire danger, said A. Park Williams, one of the study's authors and an assistant research professor at Columbia's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.
Keetch and Byram (1968) developed an index of soil moisture deficit (KBDI) for use by fire agencies, on the principle that soil dryness is likely to be accompanied by fuel dryness.
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The study uses "fuel aridity," or dryness of the climate and the forests, as a way to measure the influence of climate change on forest fires.
They are temperature, wind speed, rainfall and the dryness of the fuel - that is, the grasses, trees and undergrowth.
The task force began a daily fire weather index that takes into account dryness, humidity and fuel buildup in the barrens; the fire risk level is posted on signs, alerting residents and visitors.
"The low relative humidity affects the dryness of the fuel of the fires.... then when you combine that with the higher wind speeds it means those fires have more potential to spread faster," Meteorologist Simon Louis, from the Bureau of Meteorology, told Guardian Australia.
The fundamental fire equation in California has three variables: the fuel mass, including the age and dryness of brush; the extent of residential and other development into chaparral and forest ecologies; and the intensity of the wind.
The combined effects of warming and extreme dryness of the atmosphere and fuels, combined with the extraordinary fuel accumulations are "exaggerating" these fires (as Steve Pyne says).
Because of the dryness of the undergrowth that fuel the blazes, that fire grew to first 800 acres, then 1,800 and finally 30,000 in four days.
What's common in both is that they are driven by an exceptional amount of heat being released into the air — heat probably fueled by record or near-record vegetation dryness caused by the state's persistently high temperatures.
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