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Strauss-Kahn's reference to black swans is cryptic, since by definition a black swan event is so unpredictable it should be invisible to forecasters, and make a mockery of their forecasts when it breaks cover.
But we make forecasts when it is easy to do so, and we make forecasts when it's hard.
Always be prepared to readjust your forecasts when things don't go as you had planned.
(Disclosure: I helped produce and present these forecasts when I was chief economist at the I.M.F., a position I left in summer 2008).
His company has its own meteorology consultant but still turns to DNV GL for wind-power forecasts when it wants to get financing.
Investors speculated that the company, one of the largest long-distance carriers, might trim 2002 forecasts when it reports results today.
Similar(24)
The OBR does not forecast when the global economic cycle might eventually turn down, but then official forecasters never predict recessions, do they?
"I'm obviously not going to forecast when," he said.
The Bank of England is expected to revise its inflation forecast when it publishes its inflation report Wednesday.
One use for such information is to forecast when machines will break down.
Most worryingly, further deep cuts are forecast when councils finalise their next budgets in February.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com