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Lehman and the banks made similar mistakes in forecasting risk.
With potentially cautious guidance on cost growth, there seems limited forecast risk for 2010-11.
Nevertheless the sequential growth in the UK increases our confidence that forecast risk is to the upside.
It said: "For the first time in 24 months, UK sector earnings look to have upside forecast risk.
However, the agency said on its website that the forecast risk of flooding across England and Wales is "very low".
Forecast risk is high, key personnel risk is increasing (worldwide chairman John Pluthero may exit post-demerger), yet shares trade at a premium to peers.
Actuaries are experts in the field of forecasting risk, life expectancies and the future pension liabilities of municipalities and other pension funds.
Their poor judgment encompasses every category of management failure relevant to running — and rescuing — banks: Financial engineering, economic forecasting, risk assessment and control, and, not incidentally, political and ethical judgment.
Thomas Cook appears to us to have the most forecast risk as it has above-average margins and, we believe, needs to refinance its debts quicker than the market believes.
