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Going through those steps may seem elementary, but consider this: with that simple training, many of Tetlock's subjects managed to beat the forecasts of professional intelligence agents, who were perhaps less ready to own up to their ignorance.
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"But if we look at the forecast of professional forecasters, those not in the government but outside government, those numbers have come down to some extent".
As detailed in my Apr. 3, 2000 column entitled "Break Their Crystal Balls," and this May 14 in "Fall Till the Fall," the middle of the range of professional forecasts never comes true.
Read more: Owen Paterson's climate change scepticism 'has blinded him to future flooding risks' Yesterday waves were recorded as high as 27ft at Land's End, and reports on surfing forecast websites suggested scores of professional "big wave chasers" had followed Hercules' movements across the Atlantic.
Surveys, which are designed to collect data and include professional forecasts of macroeconomic variables, are of great interest to central banks and various institutions.
First the two scenarios: The consensus forecast is based on the Blue Chip survey and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, as of February.
Just as I do for stock markets, I build bell curves of professional interest-rate forecasts.
Second, a forecast of requirements for professionals is made (usually based on a trend analysis of professional demography and demand for health care), and the optimal workforce size to match those requirements is estimated.
Scores of professional big wave-chasing surfers packed their bags and headed for coasts in western Europe, as forecasting website Magic Seaweed – dubbed "the modern surfers' bible" – predicted an "Atlantic Code Red".
Networks of professional organizations.
List of professional references.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com