Sentence examples for forecasts of mortality from inspiring English sources

Functional time series models of age-specific COPD mortality rates for men and women were used, and forecasts of mortality rates were modelled separately for men and women.

We use the Mean Integrated Squared Forecasting Error to evaluate the accuracy of the estimated forecasts of future mortalities [ 3].

For example, the uncertainty of mortality forecasts depends partly on the probability of medical breakthroughs that may have a substantial impact on survival rates.

In the context of mortality forecasting, this means that such a model can capture the change of mortality within a certain age group as well as between adjacent age groups over time.

An obvious choice for comparative purposes is the model of Lee and Carter (1992) due to its world-wide acceptance and application in the field of mortality forecasting (Booth et al. 2006; Shang et al. 2011).

Alternatively, we compare the mortality forecasts of our model with those of other approaches and agencies like Eurostat.

The mortality forecasts of the LC model are estimated with the R-package demography of Hyndman et al. (2015), which requires death rates and exposures by age and time, arranged in a demogdata object, as input.

This strategy would be similar to, for example, the applied world mean in the Bayesian approach of Raftery et al. (2013) or to the mean of leading countries that is used in the mortality forecasts of EUROSTAT, EUROPOP 2010 and 2013 (European Commission 2014).

Figure 2 displays the probabilistic mortality forecasts of our model from 1991 to 2011; it describes them with the median and the 50, 67 and 80% prediction intervals for life expectancy at birth of women and men in the UK and Denmark.

Figure 4 displays the probabilistic mortality forecasts of the proposed model from 2012 to 2050; increasing magnitude of life expectancy at birth and its associated uncertainty are illustrated using the median and gradually widening 80, 67, and 50% prediction intervals for women and men in the UK and Denmark.

There are few published forecasts of age-specific COPD mortality.